We’re Heading Off an Educational Cliff
It’s challenging to squeeze into the news cycle, but helping young people develop a credible worldview of their education options might be invaluable.
You may not be familiar with the term “tertiary education.” Simply put, it’s a college degree. And as a life-path for young people graduating this year from high school, it’s a far different choice than those who graduated just 25 years ago. I’ll self-disclose I’m almost within that older age range.
Today, students weigh a range of factors in deciding whether to attend college, while at one point in the not-too-distant past, it was almost a given that most high school graduates would give college at least a try. Recent Trump administration announcements are discouraging some college applicants by reducing funding to grant programs for tuition, while encouraging more trade and manufacturing training programs during and after high school.
As The Economist (gift link here, regular article here) reports, having a tertiary education in 2025 can go beyond simply a badge of exclusivity and specialization, and extend to current high school and college graduates as a symbol of demoralizing circumstances.
They report a vivid set of statistics and studies confirming what recent graduates will quickly tell you: A college degree is no longer a ticket to a high-paying job.
Birthrate Comes Back to Roost
This chart, showing the birth rate in the United States taking a steep decline in 2007, illustrates the crux of the problem:
For context, the birthrate dropped sharply after the 2007 financial crisis, and the number of children couples had suffered a severe downturn. Now, that downturn has arrived at the doorstep of higher education, as many students graduate from high school and are faced with tough decisions on what to do next.
We could consider many aspects of this: University enrollment, not to mention the number of universities altogether, is expected to diminish in the upcoming years as the population continues to decline. Estimates show a 13% decline in high school graduates between now and 2041, according to a report by NPR.
Funding due to cuts in the forthcoming tax bill (the OBBBA) will negatively impact the availability of Pell grants, making it harder for poor students to afford college. College curricula will face new pressures on relevance, as AI and other new technologies shift to the foreground in many businesses, increasing the demand for specific skills over generalized areas of study.
Let’s focus on just two parts of the college quandary today.
Do High School Grads Need College in 2025?
At the outset, it’s fair to say that there is no one simple answer to this question. But there are, mercifully, some general guidelines as to what to expect based on the data.
Students generally have two complementary forces driving their work and lives: talent and self-motivation. This has been true forever.
For students considering a higher education degree, the first factor is: Which is the bigger reason, money or love of the subject? If it’s money, the dynamics have radically changed for students graduating from college in 2025. Economists and human resources professionals use a term called the “earnings gap” to describe the comparison between the incomes of people with a degree and those without.
As you can see, from 1980 to 2000, the percentage difference rose significantly between the two groups. That meant your income, throughout your career, would be markedly higher and growing if you had a degree, compared with someone who didn’t. But starting in 2000 and continuing to the present, that difference has stagnated.
In short, you will probably still make more money with a degree than without. Still, factor in the effects of inflation and likely continued stagnation (or falling) earnings gaps, and your long-term benefit starts to diminish rapidly.
If your high school graduate’s passion for a field of study is high and not income-driven, another set of factors comes into play. Universities are coping with keeping current in some fields of study due to the rapid pace of technological change. They’re also trying to predict the impact that Artificial Intelligence will have. In knowledge worker positions, like developers, customer support, project management, medical workers, and attorneys, there may be significant changes in what employers need in the next decade.
Colleges aren’t good predictors of what Artificial Intelligence will do, which includes exogenous factors like AI model improvements, new methodologies, and iterative improvements from early adopters. Students considering degrees based on a passion for a specialty must roll with the punches that unpredictable AI will bring as it evolves.
The Economist's report used Bureau of Labor Statistics data to show that the wage and unemployment gaps for college graduates are shrinking compared to their non-degree counterparts.In the right-most chart below, Deloitte highlights the significant drop in U.S. college enrollment from 2016 to the present.
Then the next set of decision factors for students motivated by subject matter is tailoring their education to specific educational goals, versus the more traditional path of mixing general advanced studies with specialized subject studies. Many colleges are developing apprenticeship programs in areas from hospitality to nursing care, and they’re on the rise:
Compared to the number of available job openings and the case for making targeted, limited investments in shorter-term, hands-on education versus longer-term, general-plus-specialized programs, it becomes more compelling. College grads this year are facing an ever-shrinking pool of available jobs. I won’t repeat what you can find on almost every independent social media platform (including Substack) for the countless stories of college grads returning home to live with parents. At the same time, they work in low-paying, unrelated jobs to their fields of planned study.
Second, what is a High School Graduate Likely to Hear?
It’s important to factor in social media's influence on young people’s decisions. No question, choosing college is one of the big decisions that recent high school graduates make. It may surprise you: they’re very likely to hear different messages based on their political alignment on social media.
The most severe drop in confidence in higher education is from right-leaning students and their parents. Particularly after the pandemic and lockdowns, for many reasons, students across the board had a decreasing confidence in what college could do for them.
This stems from several reasons:
Recent college graduates saturated social media with horror stories of their job-search experiences after college, including the extreme difficulty finding higher-paying work.
Some students became influencers just from promoting the downsides of debt accumulation during college and, in some cases, having to continue their education to even higher levels to avoid paying back student loans.
The pandemic arguably pushed a more pessimistic, short-term return on investment view on the younger generation. This pessimism has generated a skeptical outlook by both parents and high school graduates about the need for college immediately after high school, often leading to significant gaps for students to work low-paying jobs. This affords more time and the upside of considering career and training options.
Much news has been made since Trump’s inauguration regarding his attacks on “elite” colleges. This has spilled over into its universe of social media content, ranging in topics from anti-liberal, anti-woke education, to student protests and deportations, to changes in dating behaviors of 18-24 year olds.
As a parent, it might be helpful for your college-considering graduate to engage in conversations to get a deeper read of their wishes, views, and stance towards higher education. At the very least, you may encounter information inappropriately interpreted or misrepresented entirely. Your opportunity to correct your son or daughter with substantiated facts might be extremely valuable.
That’s a Wrap
I’ll close today with this: Students spend much time during their third and fourth years of high school considering how they want to spend the rest of their lives. If you haven't done it yet, opening the communication channel between parent and child on topics including how social media has informed them may be extremely helpful (and possibly revealing). As an aunt or uncle, you might also be able to reach out to a niece or nephew and discuss the topic and make a connection if appropriate for you.
The long-term, more generational impact of what’s happening to the U.S. with our educational system is worth a fully dedicated article (or series) on the subject. Our public schools need an overhaul, and the Trump administration is doing its level best to destroy the Department of Education. There’s a perception of elitism being spread (sometimes justified) by some Trump supporters that underscores his devout dislike of those institutions that don’t bend the knee to him, like Harvard.
However, unlike Harvard, tens of thousands of schools provided a range of exceptional teaching styles thirty years ago; they were tough to find and often rigid to get into. That’s changing now. However, as schools struggle to keep up with quickly changing employer needs, education reform will become ever more necessary and unavoidable across the entire primary, secondary, and tertiary systems in the United States, no matter what the Trump regime does to them.
You’ll note I didn’t write a word about last weekend’s protests, the Israel-Iran conflict, the Minnesota murders, the G7, or any other news topics in this cycle today. My reasons are pretty simple: There is enough Mainstream and Independent (me/us) Media covering the blow-by-blow that more factual analysis will be possible in later issues of the Adverse Action Daily this week. Besides, I’m also working on a side project I hope to release in a few days to get your feedback and comments on.
I hope you’ll take time today to set aside your concerns and worries about our country, our economy, and the hundred others that may be weighing you down. I truly know what it is like to carry that weight. If you don't have it planned already, I can only ask you to consider unplugging for a while today and briefly tuning out the world around you. Be sure that better days will come if you are in doubt.
Our goal is to make it there in a healthy way.
Also, I’d be grateful for your questions and comments, as well as restacking/liking if you want!
Be Well,
Rick Herbst
June 17, 2025
CITATIONS / SOURCES
(gift link above, may only work for limited time)
Permanent link:
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/16/why-todays-graduates-are-screwed
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr73/nvsr73-02.pdf
https://blog.implan.com/college-closures
https://research.com/education/trends-in-higher-education
https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/wp2025-01.pdf
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2024/wp24-20.pdf
https://news.gallup.com/poll/646880/confidence-higher-education-closely-divided.aspx
I went to college fairly late, ten years after a failed attempt right after HS. Once I started back I kind of cruised through. Nd graduated in 4 years, including 2 or 3 summer terms. That would not have happened without Pell Grants. My income pretty quickly doubled. I eventually landed great jobs in state govt. and was able to comfortably retire at age 66.
Interesting and very nice post. I wonder what US GDP would be with free healthcare and free education- including trade schools. Neanderthals are trying to make a comeback.