Protests, Tariffs, and Big Lies

The "Hands Off!" protests morph. Deportations hit a roadblock, finally. And Trump tells some whoppers.

Apr 20, 2025

Yesterday, protestors nationwide gathered to demonstrate their opposition to the Trump regime under the organization of the “50-50-1” (fifty protests, fifty states, one movement) grassroots initiative that began on Reddit and expanded through various social media channels. The first protests were held on February 5^th as a decentralized rapid response to the actions of the Trump administration.

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American Protests

Since then, the 50-50-1 protests have widened in both their scope and forms of action. Protests have taken the form of marches, primarily focused on Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Venezuelan immigrant taken from his home in Maine and deported to a prison in El Salvador with other deportees at a $6 million expense to the American taxpayers. These marches have echoed themes of democratic due process required by law and the need to return Garcia to his family in the United States.

Protests in Washington, D.C. - AFP(C) 2025

The Trump administration has shown an unwillingness to cooperate with either the spirit or the letter of the law, after multiple court attempts failed to provoke any action from Trump to “facilitate” the return of Garcia to his family. A clip from the CBS report on Garcia:

At the countrywide rallies, the theme of Due Process was echoed by demonstrators chanting in unison and carrying homemade signs demanding justice for Garcia. "Our movement shows the world that the American working class will not sit idly by as plutocrats rip apart their democratic institutions and civil liberties while undermining the rule of law," the movement's website said.

Protesters in Colorado Springs, CO - (C) 2025 AFP

The protests took on different characteristics in different locations. In New York, streets were closed as protesters walked several blocks in midtown Manhattan. One protester speaking to Newsweek magazine laid out the logical narrative behind his expectations of the Trump regime and their handling of the Garcia case:

And in Colorado Springs, CO, protests took on multiple forms, with demonstrations encouraging a range of activist issues, from local concerns specific to their city and neighborhoods to worries about cuts to services and benefits coming from reductions in the 2026 federal fiscal budget. In this local news clip, a spokesman for the Republican party expressed what I can only call a “neutral” stance on the rights of protestors in Colorado Springs to voice their grievances to their leadership:

The 50-50-1 protests have evolved from their last iteration, in which most of the protestors were focused on economic disruption caused by tariffs and Trump's executive overreach. Now, protestors are concentrated in personal worries stemming from price increases and job cuts, combined with concerns over the regime targeting individuals and having them “disappear” without due process.

Miami Protests Saturday - ICE Deporting Students (C) 2025 AFP

The Verge reported an estimated 700+ events and protests being held nationwide to mark “A National Day of Action.”

Supreme Court Pauses Deportations Under Alien Enemies Act

Right before 1 am Saturday, the Supreme Court issued an emergency order halting Trump’s regime from flying Venezuelan migrants to an El Salvador prison before they could have a chance at due process. This type of intervention was, to say the least, a rare occurrence for the Court. It was also a significant rebuke to Trump’s larger deportation goals. It could mark a fundamental shift in the regime’s ability to round up and send migrants out of the country without the proper representation in front of a judge.

This comes as too little, too late for the migrants who have already been deported, such as Mr. Garcia. The ruling does not cover his specific case, but only those in the future from the time of the order issued on Saturday. The justices signaled several things in addition to the explicit text of the order: First, for months, they had granted significant deference to the regime in handling deportation matters, allowing lawsuits to progress through the lower available legal channels before intervening.

No Trust in Trump: Supreme Court

This ruling, however, sets the tone: The majority of Justices do not trust Trump to follow the law, and more pointedly, are growing increasingly ambitious with efforts to stop him in his likely overreach of Constitutional authority. (As I have observed elsewhere, there might be a foreshadowing of another conflict the Supreme Court will have to rule on soon: The case of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Board head. Trump has essentially ordered an “off with his head” Red Queen edict; he does not directly have that power, yet seems very intent on pushing it right to the edge.)

But before that becomes a crisis, the President seems intent on driving a full-on confrontation with the Court about the reach of Executive Branch power on immigration matters. The regime’s underhanded methods in the case relating to the Supreme Court’s late-night ruling were particularly awful, which rhymes with unlawful. On Thursday, it became clear to the attorneys for the Venezuelans that the government had issued English-only declarations that the migrants were “notified” they were to be deported to CECOT in El Salvador.

The attorneys then pursued the case with the Southern District of Texas in court, which blocked their lawful removal from the United States without due process. The U.S. Justice Department lawyers then went to the Northern District of Texas to evade the order, knowing that the restraining order by the Southern District would not apply.

Haunting of Ancient Law

All of this was done under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which has never been put to this test with nearly as wide a swath of applicability in American legal history to a group of emigres. Officials from the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) further failed to inform the migrants that they had any rights to contest their deportation. Adding to the misbehavior of the Justice Department was the fact that none of the attorneys for the migrants were provided the information that was provided to the intended deportees.

This inflamed the Supreme Court, which 14 days ago made the decision that gave migrants substantial due process protections, which the Trump regime completely ignored. In that decision, the Court unanimously agreed that the targeted deportees “must receive notice” that they are subject to removal. The notice must be afforded within a reasonable time and in a manner that will allow them to seek relief.” Note the italics in that sentence; they became important three paragraphs ago.

This Picture Should Never Have Happened - “Thank you” said Trump to Alito SOTU

Giving notices in English-only to Spanish-speaking migrants is not what the Justices had in mind. In a pattern that keeps getting more frequent, the Justice Department lied about its intentions and told multiple courts they did not intend to deport the migrants on Friday or Saturday, with their attorneys finding out the opposite was true. Essentially, the operation had become a very-unfunny version of “Catch Me if You Can.”

Fortunately, with some likely behind-the-curtain drama happening within the Supreme Court’s chambers, the justices ruled early Saturday in no uncertain terms that the targeted deportees were not to leave the country Friday, Saturday, or any other day until a full due-process hearing could be set up within the appropriate court venues.

Supreme Court Building - April 2025 (C) AFP 2025

The outcome will probably be twofold: First, the ruling will set up the case of Executive overreach butting heads with the Judicial Branch, which could result in a “constitutional crisis,” To clarify what I mean by that term (which many people don’t) it is the point where one coequal branch (the Executive) is telling another coequal branch (the Judiciary) it’s not going to follow the rules (the Constitution). It’s pretty straightforward, and by that definition, it’s already been going on for several weeks, but it's not well-advertised. Secondly, it will set up the terms I mentioned regarding the case of attempting to fire Jerome Powell, which could send the entire country off a financial cliff; it may take well over a decade (or longer, if ever) to recover from.

The Case of Powell and the Fed

For those who might not know, there are two quite different types of Executive Branch groups under Trump’s regime: The cabinet-level ones—think Secretary of Whatever—who Trump can hire or fire faster than you can say “loyalty pledge” because they serve at his pleasure. In Trump V1, the rotation in and out of these positions was frequent.

Better Days - Powell/Trump at White House - Around 2018 (C) AFP 2925

Then there are the independent agencies, like the Federal Reserve, where the law gets in the way, thanks to the 1935 Humphrey’s Executor Supreme Court decision that says he can’t be axed without cause. When the Federal Reserve Act says “cause” means misconduct. So, while Trump can get rid of a cabinet member for any reason, firing Powell is a different game in which the law does not let him win without a fight.

The thing that set off Trump was Powell commenting: “While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” he said. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.” Mr. Powell characterized the risks of that outcome, which he warned could include higher unemployment, as “elevated.”

All of this did not set well with Trump. He took to his media platform and said:

It was clear that Trump wants Powell gone. As Powell’s term doesn’t end until 2026, and assuming he chooses to ignore Trump, it appears that the regime would have to take up the matter under the grounds of a legal theory known as “Unitary Executive,” which proposes to give the president sweeping powers to fire anyone, anytime, as he sees fit. Undoubtedly, the matter would likely end up in the hands of the Supreme Court to decide whether Humphrey’s Executor is still in force, or whether the court would rule in favor of Trump (and greater Executive power) by allowing his firing.

The larger, and much more pressing issue to the average worker is not the drama of this specific case. It’s what it means for the country's perception of the greater world. If Trump is given latitude to fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the meaning of “the Good Faith and Credit” of the United States behind every debt sale previously considered a very safe bet in the markets would take a big hit.

The world relies on the Fed's independence to ensure a separation of concerns—and a detachment of the whims—between the (political) President and the Chair. If Trump’s own credibility gets put in the direct line of fire for the nation’s debt, it could cause an exodus of dollars from the United States into debt instruments by other countries seen as safer.

Tariffs and Recession Risk

Last week, with the markets somewhat stabilizing, has given several big number-crunching think tanks time to compute what the actual impact of Trump’s tariff mess will have. There was not one outlook, short of the White House itself, that had a positive spin ready to go for any of it. Hell, even within the federal government, and technically within the White House, the Federal Reserve didn’t think positively about our situation.

U.S. Consumer Confidence

As Ira Kalish of the Deloitte economist team notes, the underlying ingredients for a steep shock to the United States economy are coming together in a near-perfect storm. Tariffs, while “dropped” from the initial per-country punishment that triggered the stock market into a free fall and the erasure of trillions of dollars in value, are still well above where they were before the “Liberation Day” event.

It’s difficult to understate how far consumer confidence has fallen in light of the tariffs. Deloitte’s economics team noted that it stands at its second-lowest level since 1952, down 30% from just December 2024. Reuters reported a sharp deterioration during April, with 12-month inflation expectations at 6.7% (the highest since 1981) and unemployment expectations equal to the housing crisis of 2008. To say that internal views are negative is possibly the understatement of the decade.

Lies About Revenue

In related news, Trump has claimed that the income from the “currently imposed” version of tariffs being collected is near $2 billion daily. In reality, the Customs and Border Patrol oversees the collection of tariffs at ports of entry, stating that the average collected is closer to $250 million daily. The assumptions of the quantities and types of goods coming into the U.S. have proven incorrect, with many shipments cancelled, considering the purchaser’s tax payments that the tariffs require.

The Budget Lab, an independent economic research group out of Yale, has noted that the effective tariff rate across the board is now 22.5%, which places it at the highest rate in our history since 1909. Along with several other major financial institutions, they’ve also predicted a rise in unemployment this year. The range of lost jobs equals approximately 600,000, disproportionately in the textile and clothing industries.

Many of you may remember Peter Navarro, whose idiocy I have detailed in other articles, altogether avoided entire chunks of real history to fit his twisted narrative. I continue to criticize him, along with Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent, even though the latter has emerged as the “new” spokesperson for tariffs in the Trump regime. Navarro, I will remind our readers, was the genius who failed to note that our largest economic collapses have happened when tariffs were used as a blunt weapon to stifle economic growth and global trade. That fact is still actual, evidenced by the Budget Lab, JP Morgan, and other analyst predictions that spell a bad remainder of 2025 ahead for the average consumer.

So, it’s time to batten the hatches and stuff our money in our pillowcases if possible. Nobody is expecting things to have a happy ending for an unfortunate, self-inflicted, long time.

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That’s a Wrap

So I close our Sunday edition with an announcement! We’ve been discussing how to better serve you, our very important readers, in ways that provide more impact and meaning to your everyday life. To help improve that experience, next week we’ll begin podcasting our Adverse Action Daily. With it, you’ll also get content that provides additional context around why we focus on specific topics. You’ll also get the behind-the-scenes insight you can listen to that describes our proven research system, which can be invaluable for discovering more details when you want it.

Secondly, we will try a second publication called “Opinionation.news” to provide a place to dive into pieces that affect our viewpoints, biases, and wallets (finances)! Look for this to come in an announcement of the publication sometime this week, as we’re still setting it up and don’t have a specific day nailed down just yet.

As I do in closing with every article, I ask you to take care of your mental health, especially in the face of adversity. I’ve deliberately avoided going into a long explanation of “why” we’re named “adverse” and will stick to that, for now. But part of the success we see in our future is dealing with the negativity that surrounds us daily. I ask you to consider unplugging yourself from your digital footprint for 20-30 minutes daily and (particularly as spring is here) enjoying the outdoors or somewhere you feel safe and comfortable.

In that time, reflecting on what matters explicitly to you most while unplugged is often useful. Without something demanding our attention, we have a much better chance of feeling what’s essential. From that, it can be helpful in our mental health journey to sort out if “the thing” of the moment is worth getting the attention you’re giving to it. I hope you’ll try out doing things a little differently today!

Be Well.

Rick Herbst

April 20^th, 2025